The future of wine – the wider view

As part of our 150th anniversary celebrations, we’ve been looking forward to what may be in store for the vinous landscape. The final instalment of our Generation Series features 11 exclusive wines (and one botanical brew) that reflect some of the trends our buying team believes will shape the future. We published our buyers' predictions on how wine might look over the next 50 years in September; below we hear the views on trends from the wider industry.

In September, we brought together a panel of experts from across the drinks trade to share their thoughts and debate on the future of wine in the UK and how it might evolve.

Peter Richards MW set the tone: ‘Profound change is the new norm in the times we live in, and wine happens to be front and centre re a number of these things, not least climate change. Wine is the canary in the coalmine. Will it be the ostrich, burying its head in sand? Or will it be the humble magpie, which uses tools and teamwork to solve problems?’

Becky Sykes noted the stark truth that ‘a lot of traditional wine regions are under threat due to climate change. Roussillon has been in drought for three years, and when the rain does come, it comes in storms, washes downhill and takes the topsoil and nutrients with it,’ resulting in the remarkable sight of people carrying the topsoil back up the hill. ‘The vineyards of the future will look very different. The ground will be covered with plants that will take water down to the vines’ roots when they need it.

‘Many current grape varieties also won’t be suitable. Wines are reaching sweetness without finesse.’ This favours a trend towards later-ripening varieties such as cabernet franc, rootstocks that delay ripening and go deeper to find more water, and more north-facing slopes in the northern hemisphere. ‘The vineyard of the future will be a noisy place; not because of tractors, but because of bees, birds and wildlife. But there will also be the noise of drones!’

Becky insisted herbicide use will decrease in the future, and some discussion took place about how the wine trade could go about eliminating chemical use. ‘Getting fungal-resistant varieties (like sauvignac) to become more known and accepted among consumers so they can be planted more,’ was Becky’s number-one step.

Hannah Crosbie commented on the ‘hullabaloo’ about drinking habits of the young generation. ‘I think there’s lots to be excited about. There’s an engaged, excited and broad audience of young wine drinkers switched on about things previous generations weren’t’, noting a ‘millennial urge to know the provenance of everything we put into our bodies’. This, in her opinion, is why natural wine enjoyed a boom: ‘It had stories and provenance.’

Mags Janjo spoke about sustainability: ‘I started making wine and my eyes suddenly were opened to the challenges producers are facing. They are facing climate change, electricity demands, shortages and much more, and then we tell them: “We want you to farm sustainably” and the importers, consumers and retailers say: “We want this wine at £x!” And if you work that back, you’re asking for the producer to make wine at €1 a bottle!

‘We need to move prices up – just a smidgeon of pure margin that goes back into hands of growers. We could fix so much. Wine is a low-margin business because over time we’ve set certain boundaries.’ Mags believes we need to ‘change the language, the communication, to say, “It is this price because of XYZ”. I think a new generation of consumers is much more open to this kind of conversation.’

Mark Andrew MW began by cautioning against too-specific predictions for the future, having found a 2008 report that envisaged what several experts would look like in 2058. ‘It was remarkable how bad their predictions were. The one thing they did get right was climate change having a big impact.’ Mark noted that ‘AI and virtual reality are going to fundamentally alter our lives. Lots of stuff could happen that could derail predictions made today.’

As for people drinking less wine, Mark noted that this is ‘factually correct but not a bad thing: it’s great news! We want less junk wine made and consumed. Stop extolling the virtue of £4 wine: it’s junk and it’s not sustainable in any way. The supply chain is not sustainable: wine has got to get its house in order and the way it will do that is via people drinking less wine.’

Mark believes that ‘the past decade has been very dogma driven, rightly or wrongly; an austere and finger-wagging sense of what we consume. We’re starting to see that shifting and people re-engaging with the idea of fun and, dare I say it, a more decadent, hedonistic approach.’ This, he believes may result in a change in wine styles being sought out. ‘The key thing the industry needs to do is hold the door open. We need to open our hearts and talk about wine with passion, and hopefully that will inspire curiosity.’

Pauline Vicard made the point that ‘wine is a human product, made by humans, for humans, so it’s a reflection of what society is. Wine’s future will be complex and uncertain, because that’s what our society is, and where it’s going.’

Pauline was born and raised in a Burgundian winemaking family and grew up working in the vineyards. She also highlighted the ‘generational shift in producers’, adding: ‘Then there is the next generation of staff: it is becoming very hard to find people to work in the vineyard. I think needs to change and that we need to see the value of working on the land.’

Pauline’s final point concerned regulatory changes and the ‘denormalisation’ of wine. ‘How can we continue to talk about wine and bring ‘ordinarity’ to something that will increasingly be seen as not normal? The World Health Organisation does not want to ban alcohol – they’ve learned from Prohibition that it doesn’t work, so they’re going to start to denormalise it. We are going to see less and less wine in public situations. And to get new consumers in, wine needs to be visible, in contexts that are fun and diverse.’

Pierre Mansour’s first point was that ‘the future is going to be terrific for wine drinkers, because they are going to be spoiled for even greater choice’.

His second concerned climate change: ‘It is crucial how we as an industry respond, and we’ll need to prioritise people over profit and collaboration over conflict. Organisations are going to have to look at their business models and adopt a longer-term-thinking approach, where success is measured by satisfaction rather than profit. One of the reasons we’re still here 150 years on, and thriving, is because we’re a mutual and exist solely for our customers.’

He also touched on the ‘assault on the wine trade’ in the UK: ‘Duty that unfairly punishes drinkers, more compliance, more bureaucracy, more tax. Next year a new waste management tax comes in, when we already pay about £500,000. Next year, it will go up to £1.5m-£2m. The Wine Society will survive that, but consider all those small, local, independent, specialist wine merchants. What does that mean for the future of wine, when they do such an important job helping people start their journeys in wine? A future where the high street is only dominated by supermarkets and chains is not a place we want to see.

‘Innovation is going to accelerate,’ he added, and while viticulture and packaging advances have been impressive, ‘product innovation has been behind the curve. I would love to see more of it.’ On the low-and-no category, he commented: ‘I urge the industry: don’t try and make low and no wines, just try and make wines and help us look outside the box for alternative drinks.’

His final point addressed AI. ‘AI is going to revolutionise every aspect of our lives. The younger demographic at The Wine Society is more adventurous. They love to try different things, and AI is going to help them. And, in this increasingly digital world, it’s going to emphasise the importance of real-life human experiences: whether tastings, events or cellar doors, human interaction isn’t going to go away.’

Plenty of thought-provoking discussion, and we look forward to seeing how the next half-century in the wine world pans out.

>> Read our buyers’ predictions on the shape of wine in the future

>> Discover our Generation Series wines